Kazakhstan adds uncertainty to talks with Russia on Ukraine

WASHINGTON – Russia’s decision to send paratroopers to Kazakhstan, where the crackdown on violent anti-government protests has left dozens dead, adds further uncertainty to upcoming talks over a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The question is whether the unrest in Kazakhstan has changed Russian President Vladimir Putin’s calculations as he weighs his options in Ukraine. Some say that Putin may not want to engage in two conflicts at the same time, while others say that Russia has the military capacity to do both and that he will decide separately to attack Ukraine. Instability in Kazakhstan may even add a new urgency to Putin’s desire to consolidate Russian power in the region.

Kazakhstan and Ukraine are former Soviet republics that Putin sought to keep under Moscow influence, but so far with very different results. Ukraine, a budding democracy that has turned resolutely to the West, has been locked in a deadly conflict with Russia since Putin took Crimea in 2014 and supported an insurgency in the eastern Donbass region. Kazakhstan, meanwhile, was ruled for the three decades following the Soviet collapse by autocrats who maintained close political and security ties with Russia.

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Russian troops entered Kazakhstan on Thursday after Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev invoked help from a Russian-led military alliance. The next day, as Russian troops helped restore control of the airport and guarded government buildings, he ordered his forces to shoot to kill any protesters who did not surrender.

This has led Washington and Moscow to exchange new pikes on the eve of a week-long meeting on Ukraine that begins with talks between senior US and Russian officials in Geneva on Monday.

Asked Friday about Kazakhstan and Ukraine, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said he would not “confuse these situations”.

“There are very particular drivers of what’s going on in Kazakhstan right now, as I said, which relate to economic and political issues,” Blinken said. “What is happening there is different from what is happening on the borders of Ukraine.

“Having said that, I think a lesson from recent history is that once the Russians are in your house it is sometimes very difficult to get them out,” he added.

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The Russian Foreign Ministry responded with a statement referring to past US wars and interventions in other countries. “If Antony Blinken loves history lessons so much, here’s one that comes to mind: When Americans are in your house, it can be difficult to stay alive, not to be robbed or raped,” says the press release.

The United States warned for weeks that Putin had stationed troops near Ukraine with the possible intention of staging another invasion. Putin has reportedly not moved many more troops to Ukraine in recent weeks, according to two people familiar with the latest assessments who were not authorized to speak publicly. But at least 100,000 Russian troops remain in positions where they could possibly strike parts of Ukraine, people said.

In response, Washington and Kiev have stepped up cooperation on intelligence and security matters, residents said.

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In exchange for easing tensions with Ukraine, Putin wants NATO to put an end to the membership plans of all countries, including Ukraine. The United States and NATO rejected this request.

Longtime Russian lawmakers and watchers disagree on how the situation in Kazakhstan may affect Ukraine.

Fiona Hill, former senior director for Russia and Europe at the US National Security Council, said she believes the violence in Kazakhstan “is likely to accelerate Putin’s desire to do something” in Ukraine.

She said Putin may want to reaffirm his dominance in the region by supporting both the president of Kazakhstan and undermining the democratically elected Ukrainian leader, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

“The Russian circle around Putin, they really want to teach the Ukrainians a lesson,” Hill said. “And they don’t mind killing a lot of people or seeing a lot of people get killed.”

She noted that although Kazakhstan is in Central Asia, the northern part of the country was colonized by Russians and Ukrainians in Soviet times as part of the Virgin Lands Campaign, and the Russians consider it “very much. as part of their land and not just as a kind of sphere of influence.

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“And so northern Kazakhstan (…) is seen as an extension of Russia, as are Ukraine, Donbass and Belarus and all that industrial and agricultural complex,” said Hill, a senior researcher at Brookings. Institution.

In recent years, Russia has entered into conflicts in other neighboring former Soviet countries to seize territory or strengthen Moscow-friendly governments. In 2020, when protests erupted in Belarus over the re-election of longtime strongman Alexander Lukashenko, Russia backed him in a brutal crackdown and offered to send troops. In 2008, Russia invaded Georgia and took control of two breakaway regions.

In Belarus and now in Kazakhstan, Hill noted, there is growing frustration with the elites and inequalities supported by Russia, as well as a growing sense of nationalism. These factors are also present in Ukraine, while discontent is also growing in Russia.

“This is deeply troubling for Putin because it shows that protests can get out of hand on social issues,” she said. “And that although you marginalize the opposition and seem like you are in charge, one day suddenly you are not.”

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Some see Kazakhstan as an opportunity for Russia to consolidate its power at the regional level.

Fyodor Lukyanov, a leading Moscow-based foreign policy expert, said that by intervening with military force, Moscow had made itself “the guarantor of the position on which the course of events would depend.” He said the situation was similar to that of Armenia in 2020, when Russia sent peacekeeping troops after a war with Azerbaijan to the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh.

“This is not a definitive situation or a solution, but it provides an effective tool set for the period ahead,” he wrote in an article published Thursday.

As this occurs on the eve of talks with the United States, “Russia has reiterated its ability to make swift, unconventional military-political decisions to influence what happens in parts of the world that are important to it. Lukyanov said. .

U.S. Representative Mark Green, a Republican from Tennessee who sits on the House of Commons Armed Services and Foreign Affairs Committees, is among those who see the uprising in Kazakhstan as a deterrent to Russia in Ukraine.

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“I don’t see Russia with the capacity to handle two crises simultaneously,” Green said. “I think this will discourage their ability to wage a major conflict in Ukraine.”

A fierce critic of the Biden administration, Green has said he supports Blinken’s public statements in favor of Ukraine and his push for a diplomatic solution.

“If Blinken’s actions match his rhetoric, then they’re fine here,” he said.